Industry inflation rose again after five months. According to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) this Friday, the 3rd, “factory door” prices — without taxes or freight — rose by 0.29% in the month. In the last 12 months, the Producer Price Index (PPI) accumulates an increase of 2.24% in 12 months.
In January, 14 of the 24 industrial activities surveyed showed positive price changes when compared to the previous month, accompanying the change recorded in the general industry index. In December of last year, 11 activities had higher average prices compared to the previous month.
“The January result comes after a period of five consecutive months of decline, a period in which it accumulated a reduction of 7.37% in the IPP. This is the smallest positive result since September 2021 (0.25%). There is a clear difference between extractive and manufacturing industries. While manufacturing continued with a downward trend, extractives reversed seven consecutive months of reduction and had the highest rise among all surveyed sectors”, explains Murilo Alvim, an IPP analyst.
The industrial activities responsible for the greatest influence on the January result were mining and quarrying (0.42 pp), petroleum refining and biofuels (-0.18 pp), beverages (0.12 pp) and food (0.12 pp). .
In a comparison between January 2023 and December 2022, prices in the extractive industries sector varied, on average, 9.62%. It is the first positive result since May 2022, when it registered 12.55%. With the January result, the accumulated in 12 months was -7.85%, a little less intense than the one observed at the end of 2022, -7.92%. “Iron ore was mainly responsible for this increase. The price of the product on the international market was affected by the expectation of an increase in demand, as a result of a possible economic recovery in China”, adds Alvim.
With the second biggest influence on the January index, prices in the oil refining and biofuels sector varied, on average, -1.50%. The result was negative like that of December (-5.48%), but with less intensity. The 12-month variation was 6.99%, the lowest rate since January 2021 (-1.22%). There was a reduction in the values of diesel oil and jet kerosene, petroleum products, in addition to alcohol.
Beverage sector prices increased by 5.30% in relation to the previous month, standing out as the second biggest change in the month and the third biggest influence among the other activities. This result is also the third largest variation since the beginning of the series in 2010 (behind October 2015 and September 2014, with 9.57% and 7.08% respectively) and the largest variation for the month of January in this series. Another fact that draws attention is the increase of 16.54% in sector prices, when compared to January 2022. “The product “beers and draft beer” exerted the main influence on the result, similar to what happened in January last year. Companies take advantage of the high demand in the summer and reposition prices”, highlights Alvim.
The food sector presented an average change of 0.48%. With that, the accumulated in 12 months, which closed 2022 at 5.03%, advanced to 5.74%. The increase in prices of the dairy products group, associated with climatic factors that raised the cost of production, and of the sugar manufacturing and refining group, due to a reduced supply during the sugarcane off-season, together with an increase in external demand by products, were the main responsible for making the segment the fourth major influence on the January index.
From the perspective of the major economic categories, the change in prices observed from December 2022 to January 2023 had the following repercussions: -0.07% of change in capital goods; 0.35% in intermediate goods; and 0.28% in consumer goods, with the variation observed in durable consumer goods being 0.55%, while in semi-durable and non-durable consumer goods it was 0.23%.