Dollar and Ibovespa fall awaiting the interest rate decision and with fiscal risk on the radar - Kasamim Noticias
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Dollar and Ibovespa fall awaiting interest rate decision and with fiscal risk on the radar

Market expects Copom to add 1 percentage point to Selic and raise the rate to 5.25% per year

ROBERTO GARDINALLI/FUTURA PRESS/STADÃO CONTENTDollar closes high hours before the Central Bank releases the direction of the Brazilian interest rate

O dollar and the Brazilian Stock Exchange closed down this Wednesday, the 4th, hours before the Central Bank released the new interest rate and with the return of fiscal risk to the radar. The North American currency ended the day with a retreat of 0.13%, to R$ 5.186. The exchange reached a peak of R$ 5.246, while the minimum quote did not exceed R$ 5.165. The dollar ended the day with a high of 0.53%, at R$ 5.193. O Ibovespa, B3 benchmark, closed with a drop of 1.44%, at 121,801 points. This Tuesday's trading session, the 3rd, ended with an advance of 0.87%, at 123,576 points.

The recent acceleration of inflation makes the market bet on an increase of 1 percentage point in the Selic by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), raising the interest rate to 5.25%. At the last meeting, in June, the collegiate signaled that it should repeat the dose of 0.75 percentage points, but “left the door open” for a more robust increase. The financial market once again raised the outlook for the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official gauge of inflation Brazilian, to 6,79%. This was the 17th consecutive week that the estimate has been revised upwards. In the last edition, the forecast indicated an increase of 6.56%. The BC pursues the inflation target of 3.75%, with a margin of 1.5 percentage points up or down, that is, between 2.25% and 5.25%. The index previewed at 0.72% in July, the highest since 2004, and has accumulated 8.59% over the last 12 months. Market analysts also revised upwards the expectation for the 2022 IPCA, from 3.80% to 3.81%. The target for BC next year is 3.50%, varying between 2% and 5%. Despite the new advance with expectations for inflation, the market maintained the Selic forecast, the BC's main tool to contain price changes, at 7% per year in 2021 and 2022.

Investors also echo the return of fiscal risk after the new precatorios crisis and the debates surrounding the reformulation of Bolsa Família. Part of the fund that the government wants to create with the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) of precatories will be used to pay social actions. The document, prepared by the Ministry of Economy, has already been delivered to the Civil House and will be presented to the Congress this Thursday, the 5th. The Executive should also present this week the Provisional Measure (MP) that creates the Auxílio Brasil, as the new aid package for the most vulnerable will be called, such as the Bolsa Familia. The PEC of precatorios, as the Union's debts that no longer fit judicial appeals are called, proposes the formation of a fund with resources from privatizations and the sale of other public assets, such as real estate. The economic team's project determines that 60% of this fund's resources are to reduce public debt, 20% for the payment of precatories and 20% destined for the social area.

The background is being drawn to stay out of the spending ceiling, the rule approved in 2016 that limits Union spending to the previous year’s budget corrected for inflation. In the Economics' reasoning, the revenues originating from the privatizations and sale of assets are not current and do not fit the rules of the fiscal barrier. The text determines that the value of writs paid annually be limited to 2.6% of Net Current Revenue (RCL). Payments will be divided into three bands: all precatorios of up to R$ 66 thousand will be paid immediately; debts above R$ 66 million, called superprecatorios, will be paid in installments with an entry of 15% of the amount in 2022 and the remainder divided into nine equal annual installments; values in the middle of these extremes will be arranged in ascending order. According to the government's accounts, the budget has resources for the discharge of all writs below R$ 450 thousand.


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